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In the News: Office towers are still empty
In case you needed real numbers to back up what we all know already, Bloomberg engaged the data company Placer.ai to trace smartphone data and see what office workers are doing, and they are not here. The report put the number at 20 percent of what foot traffic looked like in 2019.
Foot traffic in business districts — they looked the major Wall Street banks in Fidi, Battery Park City and Tribeca (specifically Citi and Goldman) as well as One World Trade and Midtown banks — was a bit higher in October, but was back down again in December. Plus they examined data from Kastle Systems and found that New York office occupancy rates had fallen to 14 percent.
And to add even more data to the mix, they looked at employee access swipes from a company called Brivo, whose systems are used in 2600 sites in Manhattan. Card holder swipes are down 70 percent.
From Bloomberg: “The numbers conform with anecdotes from Wall Street firms, such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which have seen the number of employees reporting to their offices fall over the course of the last month. And few firms expect that to change any time soon. The majority of employees at American Express, for example, will be working from home until at least June rather than report to headquarters in lower Manhattan, the company has said.”
Citi and AmEx have said employees will come back in June, but I don’t see how that doesn’t translate into Labor Day at this point.
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I work at one of these large banks and can tell you that we are now taliking about a very small number of additional people potentially coming back in Q4 at the earliest. Most of my friends at large companies such as banks, tech, advertising, media are being told discreetly by their managers that they will not be back in the office this year, even if they are vaccinated by June or July. You are most likely looking at 30% coming back at the end of Q1 next year and then 50% by June and perhaps 75%+ towards the end of next year assuming a very smooth vaccination process of a large percentage of the population. This is the reality of what is discussed with the employees regardless of what the landlords or media want to suggest.
It seems companies are overtly cautious to avoid potential Covid cases for obvious reasons. Most who are productive remotely probably won’t return until the dust settles from herd immunity, which doesn’t seem will happen in 2021. Media and authorities are saying fall/winter, but that outlook is very optimistic; to give the public a positive outlook.
Our company has advised that our work from home situation is now extended through Labor Day with employees being allowed into the office on an as needed basis.
I work at a global bank in midtown and we have about 1000 people in our office. Our return continues to be voluntary, and while we have been allowed to have up to 50% capacity since October, the reality is that most people are staying home. Trading desks and a few others are more populated, but only about 5-10% of investment bankers are coming into the office on any given day. Until the vaccine is more widely available, businesses in midtown are allowed to reopen (lunch spots, etc) and schools are on a more consistent in-person schedule, I don’t see how that changes. Labor Day seems like the earliest we get back to any sense of “normalcy”.
Whether you are working in the office or from home, you are employed! I have been trying to get a job since my layoff in July. I’ve applied to Amex downtown and at least 100 other companies and crickets is all I hear! I’d give anything to work from home or go into the office but I don’t even get a response from the companies I apply to. You are ALL very lucky! Sad times indeed!
Same for our large tech company (very large # of NYC employees). In the press, our execs are suggesting a return maybe this summer, but quietly telling us that we will not be back until 2022. I sense they want to sound optimistic for goodwill and reputations in the press. We are also being told that unless a liability shield or some legal protection is provided by the state, the company is not going to allow employees to attend conferences or dine out with clients. They are all afraid of the lawsuits…the downside of such a litigious society.